Paradigm shifts in conservation biology

A perspective piece in the latest Science by G. Mace talks about the shifts of framing and purpose of conservation.  According to the author, there have been four main phases in the modern framing of conservation in the developed world (figure above), and "People and nature" is where we are right now.  Moving away from "Nature for people," an overly utilitarian paradigm, this new model emphasizes the two-way, mulch-layered and multidimensional relationships between people and nature. One concern of this latest paradigm though is that it lacks the analytical foundations that made the earlier ones both deliverable and measurable.

Ecosystem services in a social-ecological context

A reading list put together by Garry Peterson from the Stockholm Resilience Centre. 

The green economy post Rio+20

In a recent Science paper, E. Barbier mapped out schematic ranking of green growth policies (figure below) and proposed the way forward in a world of post Rio+20.

Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems

A paper in the recent Science developed a method of analyzing time series data that is capable of distinguishing causation from correlation.  The method is based on Granger causality which uses predictability (vs. correlation) to identify causation between time-series variables.

Here are three youtube videos that the authors put together to explain their method.

Our perceptions of the weather = f (cultural cognition)

Freakonomics documented a recent study that found that actual weather had little impact on people's perception of recent temperatures.   Yet, political affiliation and cultural beliefs have the biggest influences on the perception!

Geographic axes and cultural diversity

One interesting PNAS tested and provided evidence for  Diamond's theory of "continental axis."   That is, continents that span narrower bands of latitude have less variation in climate, biodiversity etc, which results in less culture and ideas.  In this paper, the researchers used language persistence as a proxy for cultural diversity and analyses the percentage of historically indigenous languages that remain in use in 147 countries today relative to their shape...

Lies, dam lies and water plans

The wicked problem of managing the MDB is in the national and international media again lately. 

In his recent "The conversation" article, professor Lin Crase commented,

"Now that this first phase has passed, the public will be treated to the traditional jousting between states and the federal government. Sifting through fact and fiction in this jurisdictional debate will be no easier than judging the fairly simplistic cases presented by irrigators and environmentalists over the past five years. What both debates share in common are a predilection to communicate with little reference to history, scant regard to the role of uncertainty and even less attention to the cost-effectiveness of choices (referring to "the renewed enthusiasm for spending taxpayers’ money on irrigation infrastructure")."

Another economist, John Quiggin also said the infrastructure investments, which appeared to be what the government locked in to, are the most expensive way of reducing water use in irrigation.  In addition, "The big problem lies with the proposal that, instead of continuing to buy water rights irrigators who are willing to sell their entitlements, future policy should focus on engineering works designed to save water. This policy is bad for farmers, bad for the environment and bad for the community in general...."  Also, "The release of the revised proposed basin plan for the Murray-Darling brings us one step closer to the end of one of the most disastrously misconceived and mismanaged policy processes in Australian history (more details).."

Special issue: THE US LONG TERM ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH (LTER) NETWORK

In BioScience, 62 (4), 2012. 

Participatory CBA

A working paper titled "Cost-Benefit Analysis in a Framework of Stakeholder Involvement and Integrated Coastal Zone Modeling" by Swedish scholars. Figure 1 below shows the 10 steps of CBA, indicating where the application was supported by ecological expertise and stakeholder involvement.

Special issue: Dynamics of social, political, and economic institutions

In PNAS, 2011, 108 (Supplement 4).

Different perspectives

HT: Nate Hagens via GIEE list.

Feeding growing (and greedier) world population: yes we can

A Nature article claimed four combined strategies can double food supply: halting agricultural expansion, closing ‘yield gaps’ on under-performing lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste (link).

Civil conflicts are associated with ENSO-driven climate change

" Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This result, which indicates that ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate (Nature)."

Update: Here is a similar paper, which found a strong correlation between natural disaster and terrorism.

Science Exchange: an eBay for science

"The goal is to make scientific research more efficient by making it easy for researchers to access experimental expertise from core facilities with underutilized capacity (Nature)." So far it seems to have a focus on medical sciences.

Sustaining Environmental Capital: Protecting Society and the Economy

A report to the President by Executive Office of the President and President’s Council of Advisors
on Science and Technology, with a chapter on ecosystem services valuation.

Special issue: risk reguation

Vol. 31 (6), 2011. Risk analysis, including three papers on equality

Friday post: Full cost accounting for energy

HT: Bob Costanza via GIEE list.

Another case of Water War: Mekong

Hydropower Development in the upper Mekong is controversial. It hits both Science and Nature lately.

Update: More about potential Water Wars for China.
Update: Laos' plan of constructing a dam seems to be delayed as well.
Update: latest progress in stalling dam constructions.
Update: Mayhem on the Mekong

Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate

Old model: heavily relied on prediction models, which has high level of uncertainty anyway
New model: integrated assessment (Science).

The Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Science-Policy Interface

C.Perrings asked what the policy-oriented charges in the Busan outcome imply for the science of the assessment process (Science).

"For IPBES to provide the policy support envisaged in the Busan outcome, it needs to answer questions that are meaningful to the nations that have brought it into being. This requires an approach that differs from those adopted in previous assessments—in the functions and membership of the plenary, in assessment methodology, and in decision support. The IPBES plenary should specify the policy options to be evaluated; assessment should include quantitative conditional prediction of the consequences of those options; and reports should enable policy-makers to evaluate the relative merits of mitigation, adaptation, and stabilization strategies. This requires a much higher level of commitment to capacity-building and to engagement with the policy community. The establishment of IPBES offers a unique opportunity to build on what has been done already. It should not be wasted. "