Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Are you risk literate?
A 3 minute test (The Berlin Numeracy Test) developed to quickly measure and provide feedback about your risk literacy. It is quite easy for people with science background like myself, I have to say. But this might not be the case for the general public (full paper pdf). With 21 studies (n=5336), the researchers found that the test to be the strongest predictor of comprehension of everyday risk. I am thinking about using it in my own research...
Saturday, February 18, 2012
How to translate $/household/yr to $/ha/yr when doing spatially explicit benefit transfer?
Somebody asked me the question regarding my 2010 Environmental Management paper. A great question and here is my answer:
"The key is to find detailed information about the survey design and figure out what is the population surveyed and how large is exactly the area studied. Then you can calculate the total value by multiplying the per person (or per household) value and the number of people (or household). The next step is to divide the total value by the size of the study area.
The steps are easily said than done, of course. Mostly because valuation studies are not designed for benefit transfer purpose, as a result, one cannot find enough information about survey designs. This is especially the case for journal articles where authors tend to focus on the innovative side of the research and use very little ink on the survey itself. Then you can either contact the author or track down other publications that were derived from the same survey. A project report, for instance, often carries more detailed information about the survey.
If you still cannot find enough after trying these two approaches, the last resort is to make you own assumptions. One has to be extremely careful here, because this step might introduce errors. There are two things you can do to make yourself feel less guilty. First, to err on the safe side. It is generally more desirable to come up with a conservative value rather than an outrageously big one. Second, be transparent by keeping a very good note about what exactly you did."
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Scientists, Policymakers, and a Climate of Uncertainty
A paper in BisoScience asked can research gain a foothold in the politics of climate change. Here are a couple of interesting paragraphs.
In practically all of the heavyweight studies of climate change, including those in the National Academies quartet, the panelists assumed that the federal government is the logical leader in climate policymaking, if only because climate does not respect local boundaries (or international ones either). But there are scant signs of leadership from federal officials, and there is active opposition to any climate action (or even the notion that climate change exists) among some national legislators.
“It all depends on how you describe it,” she said. “If you are describing the problem as a water-availability issue—if we are going to face a major issue with water available for irrigation; for municipal, for our fish, the salmon—you get people to listen. If you talk about it as global warming, it's immediately, ‘go away’. “It's kind of sad to not call it by what it is, but it's much easier to communicate with the public and with the policymaker if you put it in these terms.”
In practically all of the heavyweight studies of climate change, including those in the National Academies quartet, the panelists assumed that the federal government is the logical leader in climate policymaking, if only because climate does not respect local boundaries (or international ones either). But there are scant signs of leadership from federal officials, and there is active opposition to any climate action (or even the notion that climate change exists) among some national legislators.
“It all depends on how you describe it,” she said. “If you are describing the problem as a water-availability issue—if we are going to face a major issue with water available for irrigation; for municipal, for our fish, the salmon—you get people to listen. If you talk about it as global warming, it's immediately, ‘go away’. “It's kind of sad to not call it by what it is, but it's much easier to communicate with the public and with the policymaker if you put it in these terms.”