Collective decision-making under uncertainty: Never trust an economic forecast

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Never trust an economic forecast

This is Tim Harford,

"The curious thing is that forecasters often have something useful to say, but it is rarely conveyed in the numerical forecast itself on which so much attention is lavished."

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My name is Shuang Liu and I work for CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences as a research scientist. Three key words that summarize my background are: problem-solving, the science-policy interface, and interdiciplinarity.

Trained as an ecological economist as a PhD student (Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont), I take solving real-world problems as the ultimate goal of my research (and yes, they did tell me publication is also important). So I have been working at the science-policy interface (so far mostly in the areas of ecosystem services and biological invasions) with my knowledge and training in biology, ecology, economics, public participation, and group facilitation.

Looking into the future, what intrigues me most is how we make collective decisions under uncertainty. Just think about our experience so far with GMOs, biological invasions, and of course climate change... This blog records the journal of my research in this direction.