"About the only time forecasters had any success predicting precipitation was for winters with an El Niño or a La Niña, Livezey and Timofeyeva found. Using a scale in which mere chance is 0% and perfection is 100%, in those winters they estimate "unprecedented" skill--50% to more than 85%--along the southern tier states and up the West Coast about half a year into the future. Even so, the overall skill score for precipitation was just 3%. Temperature forecasts fared better, with an overall skill score of 13%, up from a score of 8% for the previous decade. El Niño and La Niña helped out again during winter, raising skill to more than 85% across much of the eastern United States out to more than 8 months."
Science reported.
No comments:
Post a Comment