Research questions identified

I am getting more and more interested in the role of risk, uncertainty and ignorance in the biosecurity business. Our project is supposed to predict the impact of invasive species, which by the way, was called the Holy Grail of bioinvasion by Simerloff. But in many cases we don't even know the probability of entry, let alone establishment, spread and last creating impacts...

How do we take into consideration of all these sorts of uncertainty into decision making process before prioritizing our efforts? How can we communicate these "we don't know" to the public? Don't forget everything also happens in the context of global warming, which is a whole another world of uncertainty. Does that mean the uncertainty we are facing becomes exponential? If that sounds too much to bear, should we just give up and go back to the reactive/invade-eradicate world?

I know the answer is no. Should be anyway. But what are our choices? Terms such as precautionary principle and adaptive management jump into my mind. What else???